GRO GROUP

Policy

Reclaiming America's empty buildings.

Vacant offices, malls, and theaters represent both an economic burden and a once-in-a-generation opportunity. Our policy work proposes a national conversion framework — in the spirit of Opportunity Zones and a TARP-style public-private partnership — to turn underutilized commercial real estate into housing, jobs, and municipal revenue.

The white paper

Submitted to the White House.

The White House invited input from stakeholders on transforming underutilized commercial real estate. The firm contributed a white paper and a subsequent written response to the Administration's questions.

The case

Why conversions are necessary.

Across the United States, commercial real estate faces a historic turning point. Outdated offices, shuttered retail, and vacant theaters are reshaping the fiscal base of American cities.

Office

  • The United States is short roughly 7 million housing units.
  • Nearly 1 billion square feet of office space sits unoccupied.
  • More than $2 trillion in office debt is outstanding, with billions maturing each year.
  • San Francisco office values are projected to fall by up to 59% by 2029.

Retail

  • More than 100 million square feet of retail space has left the market over the past decade.
  • Over 7,300 retail stores closed in 2024, a 57% increase over 2023.
  • Roughly 15,000 closures were projected for 2025.

Entertainment

  • Approximately 4,800 theaters have closed permanently since 2020.
  • Nearly 3,000 movie screens were shuttered following the initial 2020 lockdowns.

Municipal fallout

  • San Francisco could lose $100–200 million annually in property tax revenue by 2028.
  • New York City saw an approximately 31% drop in sales tax revenue between April and June 2020.

Figures cited are drawn from publicly reported market and municipal data referenced in the white paper and are provided for informational purposes only.

The proposal

A workable conversion framework.

Designated conversion zones
A geographic designation modeled on Opportunity Zones that identifies distressed commercial corridors where conversion delivers the greatest housing and fiscal benefit.
Public-private capital structure
A TARP-style partnership pairing federal credit support with private equity and debt so lenders can resolve impaired office loans while capital reaches feasible conversions.
Tax incentives and financial instruments
Credits, abatements, and purpose-built financing instruments that close the gap between distressed acquisition basis and hard conversion cost.
Urban revitalization and jobs
Housing, community uses, and agricultural and food-production capacity that return daytime and nighttime activity — and sales tax revenue — to urban cores.

Contributors

The team behind the initiative.

The framework was developed by a cross-disciplinary group spanning capital markets, architecture, government affairs, and technology.

Origins

From Roof for All to all impacted CRE.

The initiative began as Roof for All, an office-to-housing effort, and has since broadened to the full range of commercial real estate affected by post-2020 demand shifts.

Watch the introduction video

Participate in the initiative

Developers, lenders, building owners, policymakers, and community leaders who want to convert commercial vacancy into housing and jobs are invited to reach out.

Request a conversationContact the firm